Big Ten Preview Part One
Today is part one of a three part series examining the other ten teams in the Big Ten. Next week we will recap the Gophers’ non-conference season and give our fearless predictions for all 11 teams.
Purdue Boilermakers (5-4, RPI 193)
Offensive Efficiency 92.1 (9th in Big Ten, 174th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 99.9 (10th in Big Ten 201st in nation)
Starters
G Bryant Dillon Sr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 2.6 TOPG, 1.14 PPWS, 51.5 eFG%
G Korey Spates Fr. 8 G, 28.1 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 3.3 TOPG, 0.92 PPWS, 40.9 eFG%
G Chris Lutz Fr. 9 G, 27.4 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 53.4 EFG%
F Nate Kiefer Sr. 9 G, 24.0 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 1.06 PPWS, 52.2 eFG%
F Nate Minnoy Fr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.3 APG 1.1 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.13 PPWS, 58.1
eFG%
Key Subs
F Gary Ware Sr. 7G, 13.0 MPG, 4.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.1 SPG, 1.0 TOPG, 1.56 PPWS, 73.7 eFG%
G Marcus Green Fr. 9 G, 17.7 MPG, 5.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 0.99 PPWS, 42.9 eFG%
G Chris Hartley Sr. 9G, 12.4 MPG,1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.6 TOPG, 1.23 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%
The Boilermakers were supposed to return their top two scorers from last season in Carl Landry, who finished second in the Big Ten in scoring, and David Teague. Landry had off season knee surgery, and after playing in only four games decided to take a medical redshirt. In the meantime Teague was lost to an ACL injury in the opening week of the season, and so Boiler fans are left with this rag tag bunch. A lot of freshmen and a bunch of seniors who aren’t very good.
In compiling a 5-4 record, Purdue’s best victory was against South Alabama (8-2, RPI 139) at home in the second game of the season. In that game, however, they still had Carl Landry who poured in 35 points. After that game, Landry was a non-factor and Purdue had an abysmal 3 game losing streak where they were blown out by Xavier and Florida State, and then lost on the road to Evansville. Throw in a road loss to Loyola and a couple of home wins against teams with RPIs of 250+ and you’ve got the Boilermakers season so far.
If you take a gander at the numbers you will notice that these guys love to turn it over. Your eyes don’t deceive you as Purdue has a 27.1 TO% which ranks 314th out of 334 in Division I. That’s to be expected when you start three freshmen, and they have certainly helped the cause (Minnoy 3.1, Spates 3.3, Lutz 3.1).
These turnovers have been the most important factor in helping Purdue play at a tempo of 72.0 possessions per game which has been the fastest in the Big Ten. That’s bad news for a inexperienced and undermanned team, and head coach Matt Painter would do well to slow the tempo if he wants to give this squad any chance to be in some games in the Big Ten.
On the defensive end, Purdue has played poor field goal defense and hasn’t forced too many turnovers. Their eFG% defense ranks 252nd in the nation at 52.0% and they are only forcing turnovers on 21.9% of their opponents’ possessions. These numbers look even worse given a schedule that ranks 242nd in the country according to the RPI.
While Purdue has been able to rebound the ball fairly well, led by Kiefer and Minnoy, not much else is going right for this team. With a lack of experience and talent the Boilermakers simply do not have the time to right the ship before conference play. It looks like a long season for Matt Painter’s bunch, and the prognosis is definitely a finish in the bottom 2 of the Big Ten.
Minnesota plays a home and home with Purdue this season and anything short of two victories will be a disaster.
Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: Tennessee-Martin
12/30: @Memphis (this is going to be ugly)
Big Ten Opener:
01/04: @Northwestern
Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-3, RPI 118)
Offensive Efficiency 105.0 (7th in Big Ten, 73rd in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 96.5 (9th in Big Ten, 149th in nation)
Starters
G David Jackson Jr. 9 G, 33.2 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.08 PPWS, 49.2 eFG%
G Ben Luber Jr. 8 G, 29.6 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.4 TOPG, 1.19 PPWS, 58.6 eFG%
G Geary Claxton So. 9 G, 30.1 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, 2.7 TOPG, 0.96 PPWS, 46.2 eFG%
F Jamelle Cornley Fr. 9 G, 25.9 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.6 TOPG, 1.21 PPWS, 58.4 eFG%
F Travis Parker Sr. 9 G, 24.1 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG, 1.11 PPWS, 52.8 eFG%
Key Subs
G Mike Walker So 9 G, 19.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 1.01 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%
F Milos Bogetic Fr. 9 G, 14.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.1 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 42.1 eFG%
F Brandon Hassell So, 9 G, 13.4 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.2 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 0.91 PPWS, 35.3 eFG%
Penn State, the perennial Big Ten doormat, has at least held its own on offense so far this season. Sure they’ve only played the 142nd ranked schedule in the nation, but at least their offense is holding its own at 7th in the Big Ten and 73rd overall. They’ve maintained this offense by being solid but unspectacular in three main areas: 51.8 eFG% (88th), 19.6 TO% (58th), 36.7 OReb% (75th). It’s also worth noting that Penn State does not shoot many three pointers or free throws. They are essentially a two point jumpshooting team scoring 58.5% of their points on two point shots. These numbers have not been posted against great competition. While a 60-55 road loss at Texas A&M is certainly a bright spot, the best victory for Penn State has been an 80-64 home victory over LIU-Brooklyn (3-4 RPI 217).
As you can see above they’ve been lead in scoring by sophomore guard Geary Claxton. Claxton, however, is dragging down team efficiency numbers scoring only 0.96 PPWS and shooting 46.2 eFG%. He is pulling down 6.6 rebounds though. While it can be certainly argued the Claxton needs to shoot less it may the case that Claxton taking this many shots is allowing his teammates to be more efficient. Junior G Ben Luber has been the team’s best player so far. He is chipping in only 9.1 PPG, but he is doing so efficiently and is distributing the ball (5.5 APG). F Jamelle Cornley has been the team’s most efficient scorer (1.21 PPWS) as a freshman. While the starters have been quite good on offense, Penn State is not deep, and their bench has done much to drag down the overall numbers. None of the three players who see significant minutes has been efficient at all despite playing a limited role.
On defense Penn State has been burned from the outside giving up 36.0% of its points on the three point shot, this percentage is 14th in the country. While this is something that the Golden Gophers’ will likely not be able to exploit, Penn State has also been lax on the offensive glass giving failing to board 33.2% of their opponents misses. This is an area that Minnesota can exploit and will probably be a big factor in their game this season.
Minnesota gets Penn State just once this season when they travel to Happy Valley on Feb. 8. A victory there shouldn’t be difficult, but is a must.
Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: IUPUI-Fort Wayne
12/31: Mount St. Mary’s
Big Ten Opener
01/05: @Ohio State
Northwestern Wildcats (6-4, RPI 104)
Offensive Efficiency: 92.1 (11th in Big Ten, 219th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.7 (7th in Big Ten, 108th in nation)
Starters
G Tim Doyle, Sr. 10 G, 31.8 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 2.8 TOPG, 1.22 PPWS, 56.6 eFG%
G Mohammed Hachad Sr. 10 G, 27.7 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 2.5 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 54.6 eFG%
G Craig Moore Fr. 10 G, 19.5 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.3 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 48.9 eFG%
F Bernard Cote Sr. 10 G, 11.4 MPG, 2.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.2 SPG, 0.9 TOPG, 0.82 PPWS, 38.5 eFG%
F Vedran Vukusic Sr. 10 G, 37.4 MPG, 21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.28 PPWS, 60.6 eFG%
Key Subs
C Vince Scott Jr. 10 G, 25.9 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 0.86 PPWS, 40.6 eFG%
G/F Sterling Williams 10 G, 13.3 MPG, 1.8 MPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.5 TOPG, 0.65 PPWS, 26.1 eFG%
While Northwestern has essentially treaded water like Penn State, they’ve done it in an opposite fashion posting a defense that is a respectable 7th in the Big Ten, while playing horrendous offense. Like a typical Princeton offense they’ve done a decent job of protecting the basketball turning it over only 19.9% (65th) of the time. The culprit has been poor shooting (49.0 eFG%) and a complete inability to grab offensive rebounds as their 19.5 OReb% ranks 329th in the country.
When I first looked at their individuals on offense I could figure out why they were so bad as a whole. Their top three, Big Ten leading scoring Vikusic, Hachad, and Doyle are quite efficient, but beyond that there is no help. As it turns out, if the Wildcats were able to rebound their own misses at even NCAA median levels I estimate this would increase their offensive output a full 5.5 points per 100 possessions. At their pace that would be about 3 points per game which is quite significant. Just goes to show that you can take offensive rebounding for granted, but it really does have a positive effect on offense if you can grab them.
Their defense which has at least been solid is unspectacular in all areas. They’ve allowed a 47.1 eFG% against which is 92nd in the nation. On the defensive end their rebounding has been passable at 69.2% (113th). They don’t force a lot of turnovers as they rank 172nd in the nation in that department. Basically if the Gophers want to defeat them in their two meeting they must do what other teams have done and deny them offensive boards. In previous seasons Minnesota has struggled against Northwestern in this area and with the Wildcats playing at the slowest pace in the Big Ten, if you don’t secure the ball, you may not see it for a while.
Minnesota plays a home and home with Northwestern giving the Golden Gophers 5 games against what should be the bottom three teams in the Big Ten this season. A perfect 5-0 is a must if Minnesota hopes to reach the 10 conference wins that I think it will need to advance to the NCAA tournament
Remaining non-conference games:
01/01: Northern Colorado
02/11: IUPUI-Fort Wayne
Big Ten Opener:
01/04: Purdue
That does it for the bottom three of the Big Ten. Grant Boelter will check in tomorrow with four more teams from among the “Big Boys” tomorrow.
-Grant Peterson
Purdue Boilermakers (5-4, RPI 193)
Offensive Efficiency 92.1 (9th in Big Ten, 174th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 99.9 (10th in Big Ten 201st in nation)
Starters
G Bryant Dillon Sr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 2.6 TOPG, 1.14 PPWS, 51.5 eFG%
G Korey Spates Fr. 8 G, 28.1 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 3.3 TOPG, 0.92 PPWS, 40.9 eFG%
G Chris Lutz Fr. 9 G, 27.4 MPG, 12.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 53.4 EFG%
F Nate Kiefer Sr. 9 G, 24.0 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 1.06 PPWS, 52.2 eFG%
F Nate Minnoy Fr. 9 G, 29.0 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.3 APG 1.1 SPG, 3.1 TOPG, 1.13 PPWS, 58.1
eFG%
Key Subs
F Gary Ware Sr. 7G, 13.0 MPG, 4.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.1 SPG, 1.0 TOPG, 1.56 PPWS, 73.7 eFG%
G Marcus Green Fr. 9 G, 17.7 MPG, 5.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 0.99 PPWS, 42.9 eFG%
G Chris Hartley Sr. 9G, 12.4 MPG,1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.1 SPG, 0.6 TOPG, 1.23 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%
The Boilermakers were supposed to return their top two scorers from last season in Carl Landry, who finished second in the Big Ten in scoring, and David Teague. Landry had off season knee surgery, and after playing in only four games decided to take a medical redshirt. In the meantime Teague was lost to an ACL injury in the opening week of the season, and so Boiler fans are left with this rag tag bunch. A lot of freshmen and a bunch of seniors who aren’t very good.
In compiling a 5-4 record, Purdue’s best victory was against South Alabama (8-2, RPI 139) at home in the second game of the season. In that game, however, they still had Carl Landry who poured in 35 points. After that game, Landry was a non-factor and Purdue had an abysmal 3 game losing streak where they were blown out by Xavier and Florida State, and then lost on the road to Evansville. Throw in a road loss to Loyola and a couple of home wins against teams with RPIs of 250+ and you’ve got the Boilermakers season so far.
If you take a gander at the numbers you will notice that these guys love to turn it over. Your eyes don’t deceive you as Purdue has a 27.1 TO% which ranks 314th out of 334 in Division I. That’s to be expected when you start three freshmen, and they have certainly helped the cause (Minnoy 3.1, Spates 3.3, Lutz 3.1).
These turnovers have been the most important factor in helping Purdue play at a tempo of 72.0 possessions per game which has been the fastest in the Big Ten. That’s bad news for a inexperienced and undermanned team, and head coach Matt Painter would do well to slow the tempo if he wants to give this squad any chance to be in some games in the Big Ten.
On the defensive end, Purdue has played poor field goal defense and hasn’t forced too many turnovers. Their eFG% defense ranks 252nd in the nation at 52.0% and they are only forcing turnovers on 21.9% of their opponents’ possessions. These numbers look even worse given a schedule that ranks 242nd in the country according to the RPI.
While Purdue has been able to rebound the ball fairly well, led by Kiefer and Minnoy, not much else is going right for this team. With a lack of experience and talent the Boilermakers simply do not have the time to right the ship before conference play. It looks like a long season for Matt Painter’s bunch, and the prognosis is definitely a finish in the bottom 2 of the Big Ten.
Minnesota plays a home and home with Purdue this season and anything short of two victories will be a disaster.
Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: Tennessee-Martin
12/30: @Memphis (this is going to be ugly)
Big Ten Opener:
01/04: @Northwestern
Penn St. Nittany Lions (6-3, RPI 118)
Offensive Efficiency 105.0 (7th in Big Ten, 73rd in nation)
Defensive Efficiency 96.5 (9th in Big Ten, 149th in nation)
Starters
G David Jackson Jr. 9 G, 33.2 MPG, 8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.08 PPWS, 49.2 eFG%
G Ben Luber Jr. 8 G, 29.6 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 2.4 TOPG, 1.19 PPWS, 58.6 eFG%
G Geary Claxton So. 9 G, 30.1 MPG, 14.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.8 SPG, 2.7 TOPG, 0.96 PPWS, 46.2 eFG%
F Jamelle Cornley Fr. 9 G, 25.9 MPG, 12.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.6 TOPG, 1.21 PPWS, 58.4 eFG%
F Travis Parker Sr. 9 G, 24.1 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG, 1.11 PPWS, 52.8 eFG%
Key Subs
G Mike Walker So 9 G, 19.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 1.01 PPWS, 50.0 eFG%
F Milos Bogetic Fr. 9 G, 14.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.1 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 42.1 eFG%
F Brandon Hassell So, 9 G, 13.4 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.2 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1.3 TOPG, 0.91 PPWS, 35.3 eFG%
Penn State, the perennial Big Ten doormat, has at least held its own on offense so far this season. Sure they’ve only played the 142nd ranked schedule in the nation, but at least their offense is holding its own at 7th in the Big Ten and 73rd overall. They’ve maintained this offense by being solid but unspectacular in three main areas: 51.8 eFG% (88th), 19.6 TO% (58th), 36.7 OReb% (75th). It’s also worth noting that Penn State does not shoot many three pointers or free throws. They are essentially a two point jumpshooting team scoring 58.5% of their points on two point shots. These numbers have not been posted against great competition. While a 60-55 road loss at Texas A&M is certainly a bright spot, the best victory for Penn State has been an 80-64 home victory over LIU-Brooklyn (3-4 RPI 217).
As you can see above they’ve been lead in scoring by sophomore guard Geary Claxton. Claxton, however, is dragging down team efficiency numbers scoring only 0.96 PPWS and shooting 46.2 eFG%. He is pulling down 6.6 rebounds though. While it can be certainly argued the Claxton needs to shoot less it may the case that Claxton taking this many shots is allowing his teammates to be more efficient. Junior G Ben Luber has been the team’s best player so far. He is chipping in only 9.1 PPG, but he is doing so efficiently and is distributing the ball (5.5 APG). F Jamelle Cornley has been the team’s most efficient scorer (1.21 PPWS) as a freshman. While the starters have been quite good on offense, Penn State is not deep, and their bench has done much to drag down the overall numbers. None of the three players who see significant minutes has been efficient at all despite playing a limited role.
On defense Penn State has been burned from the outside giving up 36.0% of its points on the three point shot, this percentage is 14th in the country. While this is something that the Golden Gophers’ will likely not be able to exploit, Penn State has also been lax on the offensive glass giving failing to board 33.2% of their opponents misses. This is an area that Minnesota can exploit and will probably be a big factor in their game this season.
Minnesota gets Penn State just once this season when they travel to Happy Valley on Feb. 8. A victory there shouldn’t be difficult, but is a must.
Remaining non-conference schedule:
12/28: IUPUI-Fort Wayne
12/31: Mount St. Mary’s
Big Ten Opener
01/05: @Ohio State
Northwestern Wildcats (6-4, RPI 104)
Offensive Efficiency: 92.1 (11th in Big Ten, 219th in nation)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.7 (7th in Big Ten, 108th in nation)
Starters
G Tim Doyle, Sr. 10 G, 31.8 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.4 SPG, 2.8 TOPG, 1.22 PPWS, 56.6 eFG%
G Mohammed Hachad Sr. 10 G, 27.7 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 2.5 TOPG, 1.12 PPWS, 54.6 eFG%
G Craig Moore Fr. 10 G, 19.5 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.3 TOPG, 1.00 PPWS, 48.9 eFG%
F Bernard Cote Sr. 10 G, 11.4 MPG, 2.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.2 SPG, 0.9 TOPG, 0.82 PPWS, 38.5 eFG%
F Vedran Vukusic Sr. 10 G, 37.4 MPG, 21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.9 TOPG, 1.28 PPWS, 60.6 eFG%
Key Subs
C Vince Scott Jr. 10 G, 25.9 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.7 TOPG, 0.86 PPWS, 40.6 eFG%
G/F Sterling Williams 10 G, 13.3 MPG, 1.8 MPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.8 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.5 TOPG, 0.65 PPWS, 26.1 eFG%
While Northwestern has essentially treaded water like Penn State, they’ve done it in an opposite fashion posting a defense that is a respectable 7th in the Big Ten, while playing horrendous offense. Like a typical Princeton offense they’ve done a decent job of protecting the basketball turning it over only 19.9% (65th) of the time. The culprit has been poor shooting (49.0 eFG%) and a complete inability to grab offensive rebounds as their 19.5 OReb% ranks 329th in the country.
When I first looked at their individuals on offense I could figure out why they were so bad as a whole. Their top three, Big Ten leading scoring Vikusic, Hachad, and Doyle are quite efficient, but beyond that there is no help. As it turns out, if the Wildcats were able to rebound their own misses at even NCAA median levels I estimate this would increase their offensive output a full 5.5 points per 100 possessions. At their pace that would be about 3 points per game which is quite significant. Just goes to show that you can take offensive rebounding for granted, but it really does have a positive effect on offense if you can grab them.
Their defense which has at least been solid is unspectacular in all areas. They’ve allowed a 47.1 eFG% against which is 92nd in the nation. On the defensive end their rebounding has been passable at 69.2% (113th). They don’t force a lot of turnovers as they rank 172nd in the nation in that department. Basically if the Gophers want to defeat them in their two meeting they must do what other teams have done and deny them offensive boards. In previous seasons Minnesota has struggled against Northwestern in this area and with the Wildcats playing at the slowest pace in the Big Ten, if you don’t secure the ball, you may not see it for a while.
Minnesota plays a home and home with Northwestern giving the Golden Gophers 5 games against what should be the bottom three teams in the Big Ten this season. A perfect 5-0 is a must if Minnesota hopes to reach the 10 conference wins that I think it will need to advance to the NCAA tournament
Remaining non-conference games:
01/01: Northern Colorado
02/11: IUPUI-Fort Wayne
Big Ten Opener:
01/04: Purdue
That does it for the bottom three of the Big Ten. Grant Boelter will check in tomorrow with four more teams from among the “Big Boys” tomorrow.
-Grant Peterson
posted by Grant at 8:04 AM
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